Score and Reward Good Forecasts
Looking back at past forecasts and their realizations can help prevent overconfidence and suggest places where unexpected factors may emerge. Recently, researchers Victor Jose, Bob Nau, and Bob Winkler at Duke University proposed new rules to score and reward good forecasts. An effective “scoring rule” provides incentives to discourage the forecaster from sandbagging, a proverbial problem in corporate life. For example, Gap Inc. measures the … [ Read more ]
Author: Tim Laseter | Source: Cleaning the Crystal Ball | Original Publication: strategy+business | Subject: Management